Immediate Retribution: Benfica beat Madrid 4-2 just three weeks ago — goalkeeper Trubin scored in stoppage time. That result dropped Real to 9th, forcing them into this playoff. Mourinho, managing against his former club, has labeled them 'wounded.' Real’s defensive crisis is severe: Asencio suspended (red card last meeting), Militão and Alaba long-term ACL absentees, leaving Rüdiger alongside the inconsistent 20-year-old Huijsen. Mbappé rested mid-week due to a knee issue but is in the squad — he leads the UCL with 22 shots on target. Benfica’s counter-attacking blueprint targets TAA’s flank, knowing he lacks match sharpness after returning from injury.
Letexier's 0.40 penalties/game makes a penalty statistically likely. Real Madrid have 16 pens across all comps (most in Europe). Mbappé included in squad despite knee issue. TAA back but lacking match sharpness.
Form Guide — Last 5 Games
Match Odds
Projected Lineups
Key Battle
Tactical Analysis
Mourinho's Pragmatic Trap: 4-2-3-1 tailored for counter-attacking. Overload Real Madrid's right flank — TAA returning from injury, lacking match sharpness. Prestianni and Schjelderup will isolate him.
Real face a CB crisis: Rüdiger is the only senior CB. 20-year-old Huijsen (conceded a pen vs Real Sociedad) is a critical weak link. Narrow attack without wingers, relying on TAA and Carreras for width — exposed to counters on flanks.
Team News & Injuries
Prop Bet Targets
Our Prediction
- Benfica won the reverse fixture 4-2 just three weeks ago — they have the psychological edge.
- Real Madrid are missing Bellingham (ankle), Militão (ACL), and Rodrygo (suspended) — their defensive spine is gutted.
- Huijsen (6.5 rating) replacing Militão is a massive downgrade. Pavlidis (9 UCL goals) will target him.
- However, Vinícius Jr (8.1) and Mbappé (8.8) have enough firepower to score 2+ goals in any game.
- We expect both teams to score in a chaotic, high-event game. Over 3.5 goals is likely.
EV Calculator
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Based on current odds (Benfica: 3.60 (+260), Real Madrid: 1.95 (-105)), Real Madrid is favored. Our model predicts 2-2 with 72% confidence.
Where and when is Benfica vs Real Madrid being played?
Benfica vs Real Madrid takes place on Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 20:00 GMT at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. The match will be broadcast on Prime Video.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Our prediction model forecasts a 2-2 result with 72% confidence. Benfica won the reverse fixture 4-2 just three weeks ago — they have the psychological edge.
What are the key injuries for Benfica vs Real Madrid?
Key absentees include: Bah (Thigh Injury), Aursnes (Doubtful (Flu)), Asencio (Suspended (Red Card in 4-2 loss)), Militão (ACL (Long Term)), Alaba (ACL (Long Term)), Bellingham (Ankle Sprain), Rodrygo (Suspended (Red Card)). These absences significantly impact the tactical setup and our prediction model.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Real Madrid?
Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid (3 weeks ago) The average goals per game in recent meetings is 3.1.
More UCL Playoff Previews
📰 UCL Playoff Round — Full Coverage
The Champions League Playoff Round features 8 first-leg matches across February 17-18, 2026. Every match preview includes projected lineups with player ratings, tactical breakdowns, betting market analysis, injury reports, prop bet recommendations, and our prediction with detailed reasoning. Use our EV Calculator to find value bets across every fixture.