French Civil War on the European Stage: Rare for two Ligue 1 teams to meet in UCL playoffs. Monaco hold the psychological edge — they beat PSG 1-0 recently and are unbeaten in 5 home matches against them. Under new manager Pocognoli (mid-season appointment), Monaco deploys high-energy 4-2-3-1 but has conceded 14 goals in 8 UCL games. PSG under Luis Enrique have evolved into a possession-dominant unit — Kvaratskhelia's arrival adds a new dimension on the left wing alongside Dembélé. Embolo long-term absentee, Balogun leads the line.
PSG heavily favored (50.15%) but Monaco are unbeaten in last 5 home vs PSG. Gil Manzano's strictness makes high card count probable in a domestic derby.
Form Guide — Last 5 Games
Match Odds
Projected Lineups
Key Battle
Tactical Analysis
Pocognoli's high-energy 4-2-3-1. Despite domestic form, Monaco has conceded 14 goals in 8 UCL games — susceptible to elite European attacks. Sit deep and launch Balogun on counters.
Luis Enrique's possession evolution: 65%+ expected. Kvaratskhelia adds new left-wing dimension alongside Dembélé. PSG struggle away from Parc des Princes but Stade Louis II is less intimidating than most European venues.
Team News & Injuries
Prop Bet Targets
Our Prediction
- Monaco beat PSG 1-0 in the last H2H — they know how to frustrate them.
- PSG will dominate possession (65%+) but Monaco's low block and transition speed makes scoring hard.
- Hakimi's forward positioning leaves massive space for Akliouche (7.5) and Minamino (7.2) to exploit.
- The Stade Louis II is a small stadium with a hostile crowd — PSG rarely crush teams here.
- Low confidence (38%) because this is genuinely unpredictable. A 0-0 or 2-1 PSG are equally likely.
EV Calculator
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Based on current odds (AS Monaco: 4.50 (+350), Paris Saint-Germain: 1.65 (-154)), Paris Saint-Germain is favored. Our model predicts 1-1 with 38% confidence.
Where and when is AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain being played?
AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain takes place on Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 20:00 GMT at Stade Louis II, Monaco. The match will be broadcast on Canal+.
What is the predicted score for AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our prediction model forecasts a 1-1 result with 38% confidence. Monaco beat PSG 1-0 in the last H2H — they know how to frustrate them.
What are the key injuries for AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Key absentees include: Embolo (Long Term Absentee), Salisu (Hamstring), Dier (Back Injury), Hernandez (ACL Recovery). These absences significantly impact the tactical setup and our prediction model.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain?
Monaco 1-0 PSG (Ligue 1, Nov 2025) The average goals per game in recent meetings is 2.6.
More UCL Playoff Previews
📰 UCL Playoff Round — Full Coverage
The Champions League Playoff Round features 8 first-leg matches across February 17-18, 2026. Every match preview includes projected lineups with player ratings, tactical breakdowns, betting market analysis, injury reports, prop bet recommendations, and our prediction with detailed reasoning. Use our EV Calculator to find value bets across every fixture.