The Longest Trip in UCL History: Newcastle must travel 2,529 miles to Baku — a 5.5-hour flight with time zone disruption. This is the ONLY tie where the 'underdog' is favored by Opta (Qarabağ 40.88% vs Newcastle 36.04%). Eddie Howe has lost Gordon, Schär, Joelinton, and Krafth — his defensive leader, midfield engine, and primary outlet are all absent. Qarabağ under Gurbanov are technically proficient at home — they drew 2-2 with Chelsea and are unbeaten vs English teams in Baku. Andrade scores early goals; Juninho provides transition pace. Newcastle will adopt a desperate low block.
UPSET: Qarabağ are FAVORED by Opta (40.88% vs Newcastle 36.04%). Sharps are betting Qarabağ. Newcastle's 4 key absences + extreme travel = perfect storm.
Form Guide — Last 5 Games
Match Odds
Projected Lineups
Key Battle
Tactical Analysis
Gurbanov's home blueprint: technically proficient possession (not a bus-parking side). Andrade known for early goals. Juninho provides transition pace. Target Newcastle's makeshift defense.
Howe forced into conservative low block due to 4 key absences. Counter-attack through Isak (if fit) or Harvey Barnes. Energy conservation is paramount after 2,529-mile travel.
Team News & Injuries
Prop Bet Targets
Our Prediction
- Newcastle traveled 2,529 miles — longest ever by an English team in UCL. 5.5-hour flight, time zone disruption.
- CRITICAL: Gordon OUT, Schär OUT, Joelinton OUT, Krafth OUT — Newcastle have lost their defensive leader, midfield engine, and primary outlet.
- Qarabağ drew 2-2 with Chelsea and are unbeaten at home vs English teams this campaign.
- Leandro Andrade is a history-maker — known for scoring early goals. Juninho provides transition pace.
- Under Gurbanov, Qarabağ play technically proficient possession at home, unafraid to attack top-tier opposition.
- With so many absences, Howe is expected to adopt a conservative low block — counter through Isak or Barnes.
EV Calculator
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win Qarabağ vs Newcastle United?
Based on current odds (Qarabağ: 2.50 (+150), Newcastle United: 2.70 (+170)), Qarabağ is favored. Our model predicts 2-1 with 58% confidence.
Where and when is Qarabağ vs Newcastle United being played?
Qarabağ vs Newcastle United takes place on Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 17:45 GMT at Tofiq Bahramov, Baku. The match will be broadcast on TNT Sports 2.
What is the predicted score for Qarabağ vs Newcastle United?
Our prediction model forecasts a 2-1 result with 58% confidence. Newcastle traveled 2,529 miles — longest ever by an English team in UCL. 5.5-hour flight, time zone disruption.
What are the key injuries for Qarabağ vs Newcastle United?
Key absentees include: Gordon (Ruled Out), Schär (Ruled Out), Joelinton (Ruled Out), Krafth (Ruled Out), Botman (Knee Injury). These absences significantly impact the tactical setup and our prediction model.
What is the head-to-head record between Qarabağ and Newcastle United?
First ever meeting
More UCL Playoff Previews
📰 UCL Playoff Round — Full Coverage
The Champions League Playoff Round features 8 first-leg matches across February 17-18, 2026. Every match preview includes projected lineups with player ratings, tactical breakdowns, betting market analysis, injury reports, prop bet recommendations, and our prediction with detailed reasoning. Use our EV Calculator to find value bets across every fixture.