📝 MATCH INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Defensive Crisis vs Man-Marking Chaos: Dortmund's CB crisis rivals Real Madrid's — Süle (thigh), Schlotterbeck (muscular), Emre Can (adductor), and Mané are all OUT. Manager Nuri Şahin must field Waldemar Anton alongside a youth player or repurpose Bensebaini to CB. Guirassy is efficient (29% shot conversion in UCL) and Brandt has 14 assists. Atalanta's man-marking under Gasperini requires extreme physical output — if BVB break the first line, they'll have massive space. With Gözübüyük averaging 5.40 yellows/game, Atalanta's tactical fouls risk card accumulation and second-leg suspensions.

📈 MARKET SENTIMENT

Yellow Wall home advantage favors BVB (47%), but market may overestimate their defensive stability. Gözübüyük's 5.40 yellows/game is dangerous for Atalanta's physical pressing style.

Form Guide — Last 5 Games

📊 Recent Form
🟡⚫ Borussia Dortmund
WDWLW
🔵⚫ Atalanta
WWLWD

Match Odds

💰 Betting Markets PRO
🟡⚫ Home Win
Best Odds2.15 (+115)
🤝 Draw
Best Odds3.60 (+260)
🔵⚫ Away Win
Best Odds3.10 (+210)

Projected Lineups

⚽ Starting XI PRO
🟡⚫
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1 (Şahin's system)
POSPLAYERRATING
GKKobel7.4
CBAnton6.8
CBSüle6.7
CBSchlotterbeck7.1
RWBRyerson6.9
CMSabitzer7.0
CMGross6.8
LWBBensebaini6.6
CAMBrandtPlaymaker7.5
CAMBeier7.0
STGuirassy7.3
🔵⚫
Atalanta
3-4-2-1 (Gasperini man-marking)
POSPLAYERRATING
GKCarnesecchi7.0
CBScalviniDefensive Leader7.3
CBDjimsiti6.7
CBKolasinac6.8
RWBBellanova7.1
CMEderson7.2
CMDe Roon6.9
LWBRuggeri6.8
CAMSamardzic7.0
CAMLookman(UEL Final hat-trick hero)7.6
STRetegui7.1

Key Battle

Tactical Analysis

🟡⚫Borussia Dortmund3-4-2-1 (Şahin's system)

Şahin's crisis management: makeshift backline (Anton + Reggiani or Bensebaini at CB). Must outscoring opponent — reliance on Guirassy (29% shot conversion) and Brandt (14 assists).

🔵⚫Atalanta3-4-2-1 (Gasperini man-marking)

Gasperini's man-marking press requires high physical output. If BVB break the first line, Atalanta's transition will be lethal. Atalanta created 16.74 xG in UCL — volume should regress to mean against depleted defense.

Team News & Injuries

🏥 Injury Report
🟡⚫ Borussia Dortmund
OutSüleThigh Injury
OutSchlotterbeckMuscular Injury
OutEmre CanAdductor
OutManéUnavailable
🔵⚫ Atalanta
OutDe KetelaereMuscle Injury
OutScamaccaACL (Long Term)

Prop Bet Targets

🎯 Prop Bet Cheat Sheet PRO
MarketOddsEdgeReasoning
Over 2.5 Goals1.55✓ +EVBoth press high, leave spaces. Goals expected.
Lookman: Over 0.5 SoT1.65✓ +EVAtalanta's main threat in transition
BTTS1.50✓ +EVHit in 80% of Atalanta away games this season

Our Prediction

🔮 SportHam Prediction
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta — Full Time Result
32
Confidence Level52%
🧠 Why We Predict 3-2
  1. Both teams play identical 3-4-2-1 formations with aggressive pressing — expect chaos.
  2. BTTS has hit in 80% of Atalanta's away games this season — their press leaves gaps.
  3. Dortmund's Yellow Wall creates an electric atmosphere — they score 2.4 goals/game at home.
  4. Atalanta missing De Ketelaere and Scamacca reduces their attacking depth significantly.
  5. Combined xG/game is 4.1 — this is likely to be the highest-scoring game of the round.

EV Calculator

🧮 Expected Value Calculator PRO
Expected Value per £1
+£0.12
✓ Positive Expected Value — Edge Detected
Implied Probability
46.5%
Our Confidence
52%
Potential Return
£21.50

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the favorite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta?

Based on current odds (Borussia Dortmund: 2.15 (+115), Atalanta: 3.10 (+210)), Borussia Dortmund is favored. Our model predicts 3-2 with 52% confidence.

Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta being played?

Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta takes place on Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 20:00 GMT at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. The match will be broadcast on DAZN.

What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta?

Our prediction model forecasts a 3-2 result with 52% confidence. Both teams play identical 3-4-2-1 formations with aggressive pressing — expect chaos.

What are the key injuries for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta?

Key absentees include: Süle (Thigh Injury), Schlotterbeck (Muscular Injury), Emre Can (Adductor), Mané (Unavailable), De Ketelaere (Muscle Injury), Scamacca (ACL (Long Term)). These absences significantly impact the tactical setup and our prediction model.

What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta?

Dortmund 1-1 Atalanta (Europa League 2018) The average goals per game in recent meetings is 2.0.

More UCL Playoff Previews

📰 UCL Playoff Round — Full Coverage

The Champions League Playoff Round features 8 first-leg matches across February 17-18, 2026. Every match preview includes projected lineups with player ratings, tactical breakdowns, betting market analysis, injury reports, prop bet recommendations, and our prediction with detailed reasoning. Use our EV Calculator to find value bets across every fixture.