Defensive Crisis vs Man-Marking Chaos: Dortmund's CB crisis rivals Real Madrid's — Süle (thigh), Schlotterbeck (muscular), Emre Can (adductor), and Mané are all OUT. Manager Nuri Şahin must field Waldemar Anton alongside a youth player or repurpose Bensebaini to CB. Guirassy is efficient (29% shot conversion in UCL) and Brandt has 14 assists. Atalanta's man-marking under Gasperini requires extreme physical output — if BVB break the first line, they'll have massive space. With Gözübüyük averaging 5.40 yellows/game, Atalanta's tactical fouls risk card accumulation and second-leg suspensions.
Yellow Wall home advantage favors BVB (47%), but market may overestimate their defensive stability. Gözübüyük's 5.40 yellows/game is dangerous for Atalanta's physical pressing style.
Form Guide — Last 5 Games
Match Odds
Projected Lineups
Key Battle
Tactical Analysis
Şahin's crisis management: makeshift backline (Anton + Reggiani or Bensebaini at CB). Must outscoring opponent — reliance on Guirassy (29% shot conversion) and Brandt (14 assists).
Gasperini's man-marking press requires high physical output. If BVB break the first line, Atalanta's transition will be lethal. Atalanta created 16.74 xG in UCL — volume should regress to mean against depleted defense.
Team News & Injuries
Prop Bet Targets
Our Prediction
- Both teams play identical 3-4-2-1 formations with aggressive pressing — expect chaos.
- BTTS has hit in 80% of Atalanta's away games this season — their press leaves gaps.
- Dortmund's Yellow Wall creates an electric atmosphere — they score 2.4 goals/game at home.
- Atalanta missing De Ketelaere and Scamacca reduces their attacking depth significantly.
- Combined xG/game is 4.1 — this is likely to be the highest-scoring game of the round.
EV Calculator
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta?
Based on current odds (Borussia Dortmund: 2.15 (+115), Atalanta: 3.10 (+210)), Borussia Dortmund is favored. Our model predicts 3-2 with 52% confidence.
Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta being played?
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta takes place on Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 20:00 GMT at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. The match will be broadcast on DAZN.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta?
Our prediction model forecasts a 3-2 result with 52% confidence. Both teams play identical 3-4-2-1 formations with aggressive pressing — expect chaos.
What are the key injuries for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta?
Key absentees include: Süle (Thigh Injury), Schlotterbeck (Muscular Injury), Emre Can (Adductor), Mané (Unavailable), De Ketelaere (Muscle Injury), Scamacca (ACL (Long Term)). These absences significantly impact the tactical setup and our prediction model.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta?
Dortmund 1-1 Atalanta (Europa League 2018) The average goals per game in recent meetings is 2.0.
More UCL Playoff Previews
📰 UCL Playoff Round — Full Coverage
The Champions League Playoff Round features 8 first-leg matches across February 17-18, 2026. Every match preview includes projected lineups with player ratings, tactical breakdowns, betting market analysis, injury reports, prop bet recommendations, and our prediction with detailed reasoning. Use our EV Calculator to find value bets across every fixture.